Can a labor market be hot and cool at the same time? That’s the picture painted by the latest federal hiring figures, which show a step down in job creation last month — as well as a drop in joblessness.

Employers added 143,000 jobs in January, slightly fewer than expected, the Labor Department reported on Friday. But with large upward revisions to the prior two months and a decline in the unemployment rate to 4 percent, American workers still appear to be in good shape.

“We have robust fundamentals, and relatively moderate hiring, but it’s very judicious,” said Gregory Daco, the chief U.S. economist with the accounting firm EY-Parthenon. “The unemployment rate is historically low, but frozen in the sense that you’re not seeing much churn — businesses are being cautious as to how they manage their work force.”

A line chart of the unemployment rate which declined one tenth a percentage point in January to 4.0 percent.

16

%

Unemployment rate

14

12

10

8

6

Jan.

4.0%

4

2

’19

’20

’21

’22

’23

’24

’25

16

%

Unemployment rate

14

12

10

8

6

Jan.

4.0%

4

2

’19

’20

’21

’22

’23

’24

’25

Note: Data is seasonally adjusted

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

By Karl Russell

Combined with the effort by Congress to force TikTok to cut its ties with its Chinese owners, the initiative is a major addition to the administration’s efforts to seal off what it views as major cybervulnerabilities for the United States. But the effort has, in effect, begun to drop a digital iron curtain between the world’s two largest economies, which only two decades ago were declaring that the internet would bind them together.

Other data bear out that impression: The rate of job openings has sunk below prepandemic levels, as has the share of people quitting. Few people are being laid off, but for those out of work, it’s increasingly difficult to get a job.

For those still employed, pay increases remain respectable. Average hourly earnings rose 4.1 percent over the year — more than economists had forecast, and well above the rate of inflation. Impressive productivity growth over the past year means that such wage increases can be sustained without pushing up prices.

The year-over-year change in average hourly earnings and the Consumer Price Index.

+10

%

+8

Wages

Inflation

+6

+4.1%

in Jan.

+4

+2

+2.9%

in Dec.

0

’19

’20

’21

vegas friends casino slots

’22

’23

’24

’25

+10

%

phl63 casino

+8

Wages

Inflation

+6

+4

+4.1%

in Jan.

+2.9%

in Dec.

+2

0

’19

’20

’21

’22

’23

’24

’25

Note: Data is seasonally adjusted

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

By Karl Russell

A chart comparing the previously released cumulative monthly change in jobs to revisions since February 2020 that show that jobs grew less than previously reported.

+10

million

ORIGINAL

Cumulative change in

jobs since Feb. 2020

+5

REVISED

0

–5

–10

–15

–20

–25

’20

’21

’22

’23

’24

’25

+10

million

ORIGINAL

Cumulative change in

jobs since Feb. 2020

+5

REVISED

0

–5

–10

–15

–20

–25

’20

’21

’22

’23

’24

’25

Bureau of Labor Statistics

By Karl Russell

Education and Health Lead Job Growth

Change in jobs in January 2025, by sector

Education and health

+61,000 jobs

Retail

+34,300

Government

+32,000

Construction

+4,000

Manufacturing

+3,000

Leisure and hospitality

–3,000

Business services

–11,000

Note: Data is seasonally adjusted.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

By Karl Russell

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